BANGKOK — Thai tourism should brace for an influx of foreigners seeking a safe haven amid growing geopolitical conflict, similar to the surge experienced during the Russia-Ukraine War a few years ago, according to industry leaders who see both opportunities and challenges emerging from the current Middle East crisis, the Bangkok Post reported.

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Yuthasak Supasorn, chairman of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand and former governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), said the current conflict in the Middle East has reminded the tourism industry of the Russia-Ukraine war, where the short-term impact first falls on fuel prices and consequently affects international airfares, reducing long-haul markets.

Aviation Sector Disrupted

He said airlines operating between Europe and Asia saw fuel consumption rise by an average of 14.8 percent, while flights between North America and Asia recorded a 9.8 percent increase due to the closure of Russian airspace and subsequent rerouting. The situation was exacerbated by jet fuel prices peaking at US$150 per barrel in 2022.

While the war in Eastern Europe has affected the long-term cost structure of aviation, the conflict in the Middle East has instead created immediate disruptions to regional flight schedules. The air strikes have led to periodic emergency airspace closures in several Middle Eastern countries.

Major airlines that serve as key connectors between Europe, the Middle East and Thailand, including Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines, Flydubai and Oman Air, have faced significant challenges in managing flight routes to avoid high-risk areas. Mahan Air of Iran was forced to temporarily suspend its direct flights to Bangkok and Phuket when Iranian airspace was closed, causing the Iranian market to disappear entirely.

Arrival Projections

The Tourism Authority of Thailand indicates that airspace closures and flight schedule adjustments during the peak of the conflict could reduce tourist arrivals from five key countries in the region — Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria — by 30 to 50 percent, or roughly 3,500 to 5,000 visitors within a single month. The impact is expected to be apparent during the Eid al-Adha festival in May, which is a major travel season for the Middle Eastern market.

Safe Haven Dynamics

“Geopolitical conflicts have reshaped the purpose of international travel. With its balanced foreign policy, domestic stability and open visa policies, Thailand has increasingly been perceived by people from conflict-affected regions as a safe haven,” said Mr. Yuthasak.

This has led to the emergence of new travelers whose motivations extend beyond leisure, including escaping war, seeking temporary refuge or recovery, and pursuing relocation or investment, creating new dynamics for Thailand’s tourism sector. He said this was evident in 2023, with more than 1.4 million Russians visiting Thailand, rising further to 1.74 million in 2024, accounting for 15 percent of total outbound from Russia.

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Real Estate Impact

“The government’s policy to extend the tourist visa duration for Russian nationals from 30 days to 90 days in late 2023 served as a significant catalyst facilitating semi-permanent stays in the country,” said Mr. Yuthasak. This influx has had a direct impact on the real estate market in beach destinations such as Phuket, where Russians have accounted for 40 to 60 percent of foreign condo purchases, driving up property prices in Phuket by 10 to 20 percent and causing luxury rental prices to surge by 300 percent.

Social Complexities

Mr. Yuthasak said an influx of foreigners from war-zone territories has also created social complexities, such as the emergence of Israeli communities in Pai district, Mae Hong Son and Koh Phangan, where the presence of individuals seeking recovery from war-related trauma has led to local concerns regarding the erosion of town identity.

Policy Recommendations

As demand driven by global tensions remains fragile and may create challenges such as local inflation, rising living costs, social tensions and long-term competitive risks, Mr. Yuthasak said the government should prepare for an increase in those seeking long-term living. He said Thailand must strengthen integrated security risk management, as perceptions of public safety remain weaker than in destinations such as Vietnam and Singapore.

Improving digital security, tightening enforcement against transnational crime and maintaining careful diplomacy is essential, especially as the country continues to receive visitors and long-term residents from conflict-affected nations such as Russia and Israel.

As concentrated foreign investment and long-stay demand in Phuket and Pattaya have
pushed up housing prices, encouraging tourists and expatriates to shift towards secondary cities would help spread economic gains and ease pressure on local living costs.

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To support travelers and investors from sanction-affected regions, Thailand should expand alternative financial corridors and adopt more flexible cross-border payment systems, while ensuring strong transparency and compliance. Regulatory reform is also important for attracting high-value migration. Streamlining medical tourism rules and accelerating improvements to the long-term resident visa programme would boost competitiveness and make the country more appealing to skilled professionals, retirees and investors seeking stability, he added.

-Thailand News (TN)