BANGKOK — The Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry has unveiled a nationwide contingency plan to mitigate the potential impact of a looming Super El Niño, warning that hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall could threaten crops, water supplies and rural incomes across the country this year.

Super El Niño to Hit Thailand with Extreme Heat and Drought, Expert Warns

Agriculture Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit said on Monday that the ministry had instructed all agencies to adopt four key strategies—storage, replenishment, adjustment and monitoring—to reduce risks to farmers and ensure water security as global climate patterns shift toward one of the most feared weather phenomena.

The first measure focuses on strict reservoir management. The Royal Irrigation Department has been ordered to prioritise water for household consumption while carefully allocating supplies through irrigation canals to farming areas awaiting harvest. With rainfall projected to drop significantly, every drop must be accounted for, and officials have been warned that any waste or mismanagement will not be tolerated.

The second strategy centres on rainmaking operations. The Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation will deploy rapid-response mobile units in drought-prone areas to seed clouds, replenish reservoirs and increase moisture in forests and farmland whenever weather conditions allow. Cloud seeding is not a perfect solution, but in a country facing the prospect of months of below-average rain, it is one of the few tools available to wring water from reluctant skies.

Third, authorities are encouraging farmers to switch to short-cycle, low-water and higher-value crops with reliable markets to reduce the risk of crop failure during prolonged dry spells. Rice, Thailand’s staple crop, is notoriously water-intensive, and officials are quietly urging farmers to consider alternatives such as corn, cassava or beans that can survive on less rain. The message is subtle but unmistakable: adapt, or risk losing everything.

Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives Suriya Jungrungreangkit introduces a proactive plan to address the severe impact of the "Super El Niño" phenomenon.

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The fourth strategy involves early warning and relief systems through the Agricultural Disaster Monitoring and Mitigation Centre, aimed at providing timely alerts and assistance to vulnerable communities. When the rains fail, rural villages are often the last to receive help. The centre is meant to change that, offering real-time data and rapid response to farmers in distress.

Permanent Secretary Winaroj Subsongsook said a special task force was being established to monitor El Niño developments closely, while public awareness campaigns were being expanded to help farmers adjust planting schedules, manage crops and relocate livestock in emergencies. Farmers can also access support through the Pirunraj Agricultural Service Centre mobile application, which offers one-stop information and services. In an era of smartphones, the government is betting that technology can help bridge the gap between forecast and action.

Officials are also integrating weather forecasts and reservoir data with the Meteorological Department and water agencies to improve planning during the dry season. The goal is to move from reactive crisis management to proactive preparation, anticipating where water will be scarcest and acting before taps run dry.

Meanwhile, climate agencies have warned that global conditions may shift into an El Niño phase from May, with the risk growing as the end of the year approaches. Thailand’s rainfall in 2026 is projected to fall about 18.6 percent from last year—a dramatic drop that could push already stressed water systems to the breaking point.

El Niño effects forecast to get worse from November to January

The prospect of a Super El Niño, a particularly intense version of the climate pattern, has put the entire agricultural sector on edge. For farmers, the warning signs are clear: less rain, hotter days and a growing likelihood that this year’s harvest will be thinner than last year’s. For the government, the challenge is to soften the blow before it lands. Whether these four strategies will be enough to weather the coming dry spell remains to be seen. But with the sky itself turning against them, Thai farmers and the officials who support them are running out of time and running out of options.

-Thailand News (TN)