BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand is preparing for the severe impacts of a Super El Niño expected to strike the country this October and persist through the early part of the 2027 rainy season, threatening agricultural output, rice plantations, and national water security.

El Niño Drought Forces Water Rationing on Koh Samui

The Thai Meteorological Department has warned that the phenomenon could reduce overall rainfall by at least 10 percent. A Super El Niño represents an unusually strong warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, characterized by significantly warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. According to Surapong Sarapa, director of the Weather Forecast Division at the department, the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December, potentially marking the most intense event since 1950.

The extreme weather pattern is projected to weaken by early 2027, transitioning into a mild El Niño before shifting to La Niña conditions by the end of that year. While Thailand previously endured Super El Niño events in 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2024, officials caution that the current impacts are expected to be significantly more severe due to climate change. With global temperatures having already risen by approximately two degrees Celsius, the country faces heightened environmental vulnerabilities.

Rather than a uniform decrease in precipitation, the country is bracing for a dramatic shift in rainfall patterns. Meteorologists anticipate longer dry spells and a reduction in the total number of rainy days, with precipitation becoming highly concentrated in specific regions. This shift is expected to bring heavy downpours during traditionally dry periods and an increased frequency of intense, localized rain events.

This uneven distribution poses a significant challenge for water management, as much of the rainfall is expected to occur along border areas. Consequently, border provinces may receive adequate precipitation, while inland regions face a heightened risk of drought. The four major dams supplying water to the Central Plains are expected to maintain adequate levels through August and September, though combined storage is projected to be approximately 10 percent lower than during the same period last year.

The Royal Irrigation Department has warned that severe drought conditions are likely to reduce second-crop rice production next year by roughly 20 percent due to insufficient water supplies. To mitigate this threat, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has introduced an alternate wetting and drying system for rice cultivation to conserve water. Officials noted that seasonal rice grown within designated irrigation zones will avoid shortages by relying on managed reservoir releases.

‘Super El Niño’ Puts Thailand on Alert as Drought Threatens Crops and Water Supplies

In response to the looming crisis, the department has allocated 9.49 billion cubic meters of water for consumption, agriculture, ecosystems, and industry. An additional 5.46 billion cubic meters will be strategically released, bringing the total planned water allocation for the rainy season to nearly 15 billion cubic meters. Authorities have increased water discharges this month to support farmers but plan to reduce flows in the coming month to preserve vital reserves for the impending drought season, during which water demand is projected to surge by 20 percent.

-Thailand News (TN)