BANGKOK – Thailand’s tourism sector could lose 15-17 percent of its revenue if the baht strengthens beyond 30 per US dollar, a former governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand has warned, as industry stakeholders also forecast a slowdown in Songkran bookings amid rising costs and environmental concerns, the Bangkok Post reported.

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Speaking at the Thai Hotels Association’s annual general meeting on Tuesday, Yuthasak Supasorn, chairman of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand and former TAT governor, outlined three scenarios for the baht and their potential impact on Thai tourism should the Middle East crisis persist.

Worst-Case Scenario

In the worst-case scenario, if the baht strengthens beyond 30 per US dollar, Thailand would struggle to compete with regional rivals, potentially losing 15-17 percent in tourism revenue. Long-haul travel would slow due to higher costs, while short-haul tourists may switch to nearby destinations such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Mr Yuthasak noted that the baht is currently trading between 30 and 32 per dollar, which has not yet dented its appeal to foreign tourists. This exchange rate is still considered appropriate for tourists with flexible spending, who opt for destinations offering attractive experiences, gastronomy and safety rather than focusing solely on low prices. However, he cautioned that Thai tourism operators need to upgrade their products to meet this new standard.

Room for Growth

Tourism spending per trip in Thailand averages US$1,300 and has room to grow compared with $1,600 and $1,700 per trip in countries such as Japan and Singapore, Mr Yuthasak said. He suggested Thailand should put more effort into promoting its unique selling points, particularly as a medical and wellness hub, a premium meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions destination, and a digital nomad enclave.

The tourism sector could lose 15-17% of revenue if the baht strengthens beyond 30 per US dollar, according to a former governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).

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He also recommended that Thailand position itself as a destination for travellers seeking respite from stress and conflict, while capitalizing on its neutral geopolitical position as a hub for meetings and business negotiations. If the baht weakens to 32-34 per dollar, he added, this would be the sweet spot, encouraging more arrivals and making Thailand’s pricing as competitive as Japan and Vietnam.

Songkran Bookings Expected to Slow

Meanwhile, Thai Hotels Association president Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun forecast that bookings for the Songkran holiday this year could drop by 5-10 percent year-on-year due to concerns over rising travel costs and petrol shortages. Some provinces are expected to be more severely affected than others, such as Chiang Mai, which recently recorded the world’s highest air pollution level.

Mr Thienprasit noted that some domestic travellers may postpone long-distance road trips, including the Bangkok-Chiang Mai route, while Krabi has been hit by multiple flight cancellations. During this weaker period, he said hotels might refrain from raising room rates and even offer additional services to attract guests.

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New Minister Appointed

Surasak Phancharoenworakul was appointed tourism and sports minister on Tuesday. Mr Thienprasit said the THA is gathering proposals from its members to submit to the new minister, as the industry seeks support to navigate the challenges ahead.

-Thailand News (TN)