BANGKOK – Thailand’s economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the coming years, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting a deceleration to 2.1% in 2025 and a further decline to 1.6% in 2026. The warning came during the IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation, which highlighted rising economic risks and persistent structural challenges despite stronger-than-expected growth of 3% in the first half of 2025, MCOT reported.

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The Fund noted that inflation is expected to remain low, gradually returning to the Bank of Thailand’s target range only by 2027. In response to these challenges, the IMF recommended a carefully calibrated policy approach. It suggested maintaining accommodative monetary policy with room for further easing to counter downside risks to demand and inflation.

The S&P global credit rating agency has set Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+, with a stable economic outlook and growth rate projections of 2.3% and 2.0% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, thanks to the government’s supportive fiscal policies amidst external risks and… pic.twitter.com/TzHEqysdPB

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On fiscal matters, the IMF emphasized the need for targeted spending and caution due to Thailand’s high public debt levels, urging authorities to establish a credible medium-term consolidation strategy to ensure fiscal sustainability. The Fund also called for accelerated efforts to address high household debt, which currently impedes credit channels and weakens monetary policy effectiveness. Thai authorities have acknowledged these concerns and indicated ongoing commitment to stimulus measures and structural reforms.

-Thailand News (TN)